Los precios de los alimentos seguirán subiendo. (Financial Times y The Economist)
Según el Financial times, “la economía global está afrontando una segunda ola de inflación de los alimentos, después de que el Departamento de agricultura del gobierno de los EE.UU. advirtiera de importantes caídas de los stocks en las producciones de maiz, trigo y soja, así como por la importante demanda” (Financial Times: Concerns over food inflation as harvests fail). El informe oficial advierte de que los stocks de estas materias primas podrían caer a su nivel más bajo en 60 años de aquí al final de la cosecha anual del año 2007-2008. Los EE.UU. son el principal exportador mundial de trigo, sigue la noticia, y los países importadores están pujando fuertemente por sus cosechas, al tiempo que otros países exportadores cortan el suministro. El tiempo frío ha dañado las cosechas de Argentina y la sequía ha afectado a la producción de trigo de Australia. Por otra parte, las inundaciones han dañado también las cosechas europeas. Diversos analistas reflejan que las tensiones entre oferta frágil y demanda creciente pueden producir nuevos “shocks” de precios de los alimentos en el año 2008.
Por su parte, The Economist ha anunciado, como han hecho otros diarios anteriormente, “el fin de la comida barata”. (Food prices. THE ECONOMIST: Cheap no more). Considera el diario que el incremento de los ingresos en Asia y los subsidios al etanol en los EE.UU. están poniendo punto y final a la prolongada etapa de bajos precios de los alimentos. Así, según nos advierte el diario, en Septiembre de 2007 el precio del trigo alcanzó los 400$ la tonelada, una cifra jamás alcanzada, mientras que sólo cinco meses atrás cotizaba a alrededor de 200$. También han alcanzado un precio record el maíz, así como el del arroz. Entre las causas, el diario cita las bajas cosechas, especialmente en Australia, y reconoce que los stocks de cereales es la más baja que se recuerda. Sin embargo, las cosechas han registrado importantes records históricos de producción, por lo que hay que buscar las causas de estas subidas de precios en otros motivos: una de las causas que The Economist encuentra es el incremento de la riqueza en China e India, y concretamente los incrementos que registran de granos para alimentar a los alimentos con los que aumentar la producción de carne, ya que históricamente existe una relación directa entre consumo de carne y producto interior bruto de una economía. Este cambio de dieta (que ya es cárnica en los países ricos) está motivando la desviación de grano de alimentación directa a las personas a la alimentación cárnica (que se paga mejor por parte de ciudadanos más ricos). Otro de los factores que han influido en la subida de los precios es la “rampante demanda para etanol como combustible para los coches americanos”. En estos momentos, los EE.UU. usan ya más proporción de su cosecha de maíz para producir etanol que para venderla en el exterior. El incentivo - en forma de subsidios oficiales - del precio del etanol ha llevado a agricultores a pasar su cosecha al maiz, lo que ha elevado igualmente los precios de otras materias primas agrícolas. Según The economist, “la demanda para el programa americano de etanol, por sí misma, asciende a más de la mitad del hueco entre oferta y demanda que existe hoy en el Mundo para satisfacer las necesidades de cereales”. Según el Banco Mundial, continúa el diario, “el grano necesario para alimentar a un SUV (gran vehículo unifamiliar americano) podría alimentar a una persona durante un año. Pero el diario también comenta que existen límites en lo que respecta a la posibilidad de incrementar la oferta de granos a nivel mundial, que es una de las respuestas que ya se están poniendo en marcha. Se pueden cultivar nuevos terrenos, pero éstos están situados en zonas remotas de Brasil, Rusia, Kazakhstan, el Congo o Sudán, lo que requeriría importantes inversiones en carreteras y otras infraestructuras, que llevaría décadas construir, además de la consabida deforestación. También se podrían obtener mayores cosechas con modificaciones genéticas, pero también esta medida llevaría tiempo. Y, por otro lado, se advierte de la pérdida de cosechas en zonas afectadas por el cambio climático. También se comenta que, debido a esta dinámica, diversos países han puesto control público a los precios de los alimentos, y una docena de países han restringido las exportaciones de grano. Por ejemplo, Argentina y Rusia han tomado ambas medidas. Entre los perdedores de esta estrategia están los países importadores pobres, así como las agencias de ayuda alimentaria internacionales, que suministran a los países de más baja renta, en zonas donde los alimentos ocupan una parte esencial del presupuesto familiar. En otros países las tensiones inflacionarias de los precios están creando un marco de presión sobre los salarios, precisamente en un entorno monetario de escasez de liquidez.
Texto de las noticias:
Financial Times: Concerns over food inflation as harvests fail
By Javier Blas and Chris Flood in London
Published: December 11 2007 19:49 | Last updated: December 11 2007 19:49
The global economy is facing a second wave of food inflation after the US agriculture department on Tuesday warned of significant falls in stocks of corn, wheat and soyabean and heavy demand.
Officials forecast US wheat stocks would shrink to their lowest level in 60 years, dropping from 312m bushels to 280m by the end of the 2007-08 crop year.
The US is the world’s biggest exporter of wheat and importing countries are bidding heavily for its crops as other exporters cut supplies.
Cold weather damaged crops in Argentina and drought affected Australia’s wheat production. Flooding also damaged European crops.
Michael Lewis, of Deutsche Bank in London, said the decline in stocks and rising shortages in large parts of Asia suggested 2008 “could deliver another year of . . . price shocks”.
Corn and soyabean stocks will also be lower than expected as demand from emerging countries rises in spite of record prices.
Greg Wagner of Horizon Ag Strategies in Chicago said supplies of soyabeans and wheat had now tightened to “very uncomfortable levels”.
Chicago wheat futures for March 2008 delivery rose to $9.29 a bushel, just short of the record $9.61 last summer. Prices later fell on profit-taking.
Corn prices for March rose to $4.19 a bushel, the highest in six months, while soyabean futures for January jumped to a fresh 34-year high of $11.32 a bushel.
Gavin Maguire of Iowa Grain in Chicago said the lower stocks confirmed the view that strong global demand was eating into the world’s supplies of agricultural products.
Agricultural commodities analysts have warned that rising prices for corn, wheat and soyabean will force up feedstock costs for farmers, leading to higher meat, poultry and milk prices for consumers.
Food prices are boosting inflationary pressures just as central banks are trying to cut rates to cushion their economies from the effect of the credit squeeze.
China said on Tuesday that inflation had reached an 11-year high at 6.9 per cent in November, boosted by a 18.2 per cent jump in food prices.
Eurozone inflation recently rose to a six-year high propelled by high oil and food prices.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Wheat prices raise fears of supply crisis - Oct-16
Wheat: the thirsty crop - Oct-16
Conversion to biofuels likely to bolster demand for crops - Oct-17
Lex: Grain markets - Oct-16
Grain stockpiles at lowest for 25 years - Oct-12
Drought pushes wheat to 10-year high - Oct-10
Dec 6th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Rising incomes in Asia and ethanol subsidies in America have put an end to a long era of falling food prices
Gerrit Buntrock
ONE of the odder features of last weekend’s vote in Venezuela was that staple foods were in short supply. Something similar happened in Russia before its parliamentary election. Governments in both oil-rich countries had imposed controls on food prices, with the usual consequences. Such controls have been surprisingly widespread-a knee-jerk response to one of the most remarkable changes that food markets, indeed any markets, have seen for years: the end of cheap food.
In early September the world price of wheat rose to over $400 a tonne, the highest ever recorded. In May it had been around $200. Though in real terms its price is far below the heights it scaled in 1974, it is still twice the average of the past 25 years. Earlier this year the price of maize (corn) exceeded $175 a tonne, again a world record. It has fallen from its peak, as has that of wheat, but at $150 a tonne is still 50% above the average for 2006.
As the price of one crop shoots up, farmers plant it to take advantage, switching land from other uses. So a rise in wheat prices has knock-on effects on other crops. Rice prices have hit records this year, although their rise has been slower. The Economist’s food-price index is now at its highest since it began in 1845, having risen by one-third in the past year.
Normally, sky-high food prices reflect scarcity caused by crop failure. Stocks are run down as everyone lives off last year’s stores. This year harvests have been poor in some places, notably Australia, where the drought-hit wheat crop failed for the second year running. And world cereals stocks as a proportion of production are the lowest ever recorded. The run-down has been accentuated by the decision of large countries (America and China) to reduce stocks to save money.
Yet what is most remarkable about the present bout of “agflation” is that record prices are being achieved at a time not of scarcity but of abundance. According to the International Grains Council, a trade body based in London, this year’s total cereals crop will be 1.66 billion tonnes, the largest on record and 89m tonnes more than last year’s harvest, another bumper crop. That the biggest grain harvest the world has ever seen is not enough to forestall scarcity prices tells you that something fundamental is affecting the world’s demand for cereals.
DAILY EXPRESS: PRICE HIKE: Shopping for fruit and veg is likely to get even more expensive in coming weeks
Tuesday December 4,2007
By Jo Macfarlane
THE price of fruit and vegetables has soared to a three-year high.
A typical shopping basket of the nation’s favourite fresh produce now costs 23 per cent more than it did in July.
And with demand increasing in the run-up to Christmas, experts say prices will continue shooting up.
One report out today even suggests families would be better off going out to a restaurant for Christmas dinner.
Phil Hudson, of the National Farmers’ Union, said: “There is a lot of talk about food price inflation across all the categories and fruit and veg is no exception. Oil, electricity and gas prices, as well as labour costs, are going up, some crops have been affected by weather conditions, and the five-a-day message is getting through and driving demand for fresh produce.
“There is nothing to suggest that the effect of any of these influences is going to end.”The biggest increase has been in the price of cherry tomatoes. The cost of a punnet rose by a third between October and November.
Grapes are up 21 per cent, while strawberries cost 10 per cent more.
The shopping basket survey, published this week, warns that soaring costs show no sign of slowing down.
The report, in trade magazine The Grocer, said: “Further increases in the price of fruit and veg lend weight to claims that Christmas 2007 will be the most expensive ever.”
In the survey, of 10 items in the shopping basket, five of them - cherry tomatoes, grapes, strawberries, new potatoes and onions - have risen sharply in the past month.
Seasonal apples and mushrooms were the only ones to have kept a steady price with no increase. And only green beans, pears and bananas have gone down in price.
Strawberries are nearly 50 per cent more expensive than at the same time last year.
The Grocer report, by retail researcher ESA, said: “The price of our basket of staple items reached its highest level for almost three years and is now 23 per cent more expensive than it was in July.”
It had risen by 6.7 per cent from £12.56 to £13.40 in the past month alone.
One factor in the price increase is greater demand for fresh fruit and vegetables. Sales in Europe are rising faster than for any other food or drink product, which is “indicative of healthy eating”, a What’s Hot Around the Globe report said.
Eggs, bacon, butter, milk and bread have all also seen inflation-busting price hikes in recent months - adding £1 more to the weekly shop compared with last year.
In September, The Grocer found that loaves of bread from the in-store bakeries at Sainsbury’s and Tesco cost 94p each compared with 73p last year. The price of a pint of milk had also soared by up to 7p in just 12 months.
The washout summer has also had an effect. It spoiled many crops including potatoes and sprouts.
The National Consumer Council said: “Many consumers are facing an uncertain future, with rising food and fuel prices, and a squeeze on credit.
“The big question is, where is the economy going?”
It all adds up to an extra squeeze on families already struggling to budget for Christmas.
With turkey farmers hit by rising feed prices, and cranberries also in shortage, the cost of the family Christmas dinner will hit nearly £16 a head, a separate survey for the Good Food Guide magazine claims. It means many would be better off eating out this year.
Editor Elizabeth Carter said that some restaurants are charging “just a few pounds” more for Christmas lunch than it would cost to cook at home.
She said: “It might cost a little bit more, but you’ll save yourself some shopping, cooking and washing up and have more time for family, friends and festivities.”
Poor wheat harvests and an increasing demand for food worldwide have produced record levels of food price inflation, which, in turn, have pushed up the price of meat and dairy products as farmers try to recoup the costs of expensive feed. And with continued high oil prices and severe weather in regions where crops are grown, food costs are likely to rocket further.
Independent consumer watchdog Which? said: “The cost of groceries has been creeping up as a result of a number of factors including the weather conditions this year.
“This means extra costs for households. There are still differences between supermarkets and stores and people should shop around.
“But it is still very expensive for people to eat at home and often it’s cheaper to eat out.”
The Office of National Statistics has said food companies are paying the highest price for produce since 1993.
The high street shopping misery for millions of Britons is being compounded by soaring petrol and diesel prices, which are now more than £1 a litre.
But the gloomy picture could provide some good news for at least one section of the population.
Mr Hudson, of the National Farmers’ Union, said: “Prices have been historically low so food price inflation is welcome - as long as growers get to reap the reward.”
