Editorial del Financial Times: Prepararse para la era del cenit del petróleo. Financial Times advierte también del declive de la producción de petróleo en Nigeria.
Financial Times, uno de los diarios económicos más importantes del Mundo, ha advertido en su editorial del martes, 17 de abril de 2008, que debemos “prepararnos para la era del cenit del petróleo“, haciendo alusión al declive del petróleo en Rusia (segundo productor mundial), y aportando importantes informaciones acerca del posible declive de un tercio del petróleo en Nigeria, que es hoy el 12º productor mundial de crudo, y el primer exportador de crudo de África, y 8º del Mundo, tras Kuwait. En concreto, Financial Times advierte que Nigeria podría extraer un tercio menos de petróleo de aquí al año 2015 salvo que se encontraran fórmulas para incrementar la inversión en alianzas empresariales, con la participación de empresas extranjeras, según un Informe del Presidente del país, Umaru Yar´Adua.
El citado Informe advierte de que el Estado nigeriano debe incrementar la inversión propia en un recurso que supone el 90% de sus ingresos por exportaciones, y considera como inevitable que exista un declive del 30% en la extracción, si se mantienen los niveles actuales de inversión por parte de la empresa nacional Nigeriana, la Nigerian National Petroleum Corp, que no ha podido pagar su parte de costes en las alianzas empresariales con las empresas petroleras privadas del extranjero, como Shell, Exxon Mobil o Chevron.
Por su parte, Colin Campbell, el presidente de la Asociación para el estudio del cenit del petróleo y del gas (ASPO), estima que el cenit del petróleo en Nigeria, que se destaca por sus yacimientos en la zona de aguas profundas y en la zona del Delta del Níger, podría tener lugar alrededor del 2013. Por su parte, Joël van der Reijden considera un cenit en el año 2009. Este autor considera que el petróleo ligero probablemente llegó al cenit en un temprano 1977, pero si se añade el petróleo de aguas profundas, que él preve que llegue a su cenit en el año 2009, el país podría alcanzar una producción máxima de alrededor de 3 millones de barriles de petróleo al día (en el año 2006 produjo 2,4 mbpd).
Por su interés, reproducimos la noticia aparecida en Financial Times:
Financial Times: Nigeria’s oil output ‘could fall by a third’
By Matthew Green in Lagos
Published: April 16 2008 23:09 | Last updated: April 17 2008 09:30
Nigeria risks losing a third of its oil output by 2015 unless it finds ways to boost investment in joint ventures with foreign energy companies, an internal report by President Umaru Yar’Adua’s energy advisers warns.
The progess report, seen by the Financial Times, highlights the government’s need to find ways to finance the oil industry in the country. It comes after an internal memo from the Shell Petroleum Development Company late last year that said funding problems could put the existence of the company’s joint venture with the Nigerian government at risk. The fresh warning could add to supply fears that have pushed oil prices to fresh records this week and saw prices reach a record $115.45 a barrel on Thursday.
Traders are already worried about Russia’s oil production, considered critical to keep up with Asian demand, after warnings from industry executives that production there has peaked at about 10m barrels a day.
Mr Yar’Adua’s advisers include former Opec secretary-general Rilwanu Lukman, who chairs a committee created to draft proposals for an overhaul of Nigeria’s energy sector. The government hopes the reform process will help double production in Africa’s biggest crude exporter from its current 2.1m b/d.
The report says funding shortfalls “portend a grave danger not just to the reform process, but to the continued well-being of the industry as a whole”, adding that even if funding levels are maintained “total oil and gas production will decline by 30 per cent from its current level by 2015″.
The government’s failure to pay its share of costs of the joint ventures with companies such as Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron, is one of the biggest obstacles to raising production.
The Nigerian government and Shell declined to comment.
Nigeria warned on oil spending
By Matthew Green in Lagos
Published: April 16 2008 23:09 | Last updated: April 16 2008 23:09
President Umaru Yar’Adua has made tackling funding shortfalls for Nigeria’s joint ventures with western oil majors a priority since he won elections a year ago.
But the scale of the problems building up as a result of the chronic failure of Nigerian governments to meet the state’s share of maintenance and exploration costs may have taken him by surprise.
An internal report seen by the Financial Times warns that production of oil, on which Nigeria depends for more than 90 per cent of its export earnings, will fall by a third unless the government boosts investment. Such a decline would see Angola overtake Nigeria as sub-Saharan Africa’s leading oil producer and give western governments, who see west African oil and gas production as essential to global energy security, pause for thought.
The warning was contained in an internal progress report drafted in January by a committee Mr Yar’Adua set up to reform Nigeria’s energy sector.
“Indications are that, even if current funding levels are maintained, total oil and gas production will decline by 30 per cent from its current level by 2015,” it says.
The US, which already imports about half of Nigeria’s oil, hopes the country will play a growing role in reducing its dependence on the Middle East. European governments see potential in Nigeria’s gas reserves for reducing their reliance on Russian exports.
But such plans hinge on raising production in joint ventures between the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp and majors such as Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Total, which account for about two thirds of Nigeria’s 2.1m barrels per day.
Aware that the government’s failure to pay its share of costs in the joint ventures is one of the biggest brakes on growth, Mr Yar’Adua’s advisers are working on proposals to seek new sources of finance.
In the short-term, senior energy officials say they are close to agreeing terms under which the majors will extend loans to cover part of the immediate investment needs. The report says the shortfall in joint venture financing already stands at more than $3bn (£1.5bn, €1.8bn), and could grow to $8bn this year.
In the long-run, the government wants to change the way the joint ventures are structured to allow them to approach local and international capital markets to raise finance.
Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, said that the company had agreed the principles of the plan but more work was needed. Shell gave no immediate comment on the report.
Executives at western majors have, however, expressed unease at how long it will take to make the legal and financial changes needed to get the new system working.
The progress report also proposes a 0.25 percent surcharge on each barrel of oil or gas equivalent to fund new, streamlined government energy agencies. Nigeria is already seeking to renegotiate contracts covering offshore production to win a greater share of profits to reflect soaring oil prices.
The report suggests hiring independent consultants to recruit operational staff for the joint ventures, prioritising Nigerians over expatriates. “Given the sensitivity of the staff selection process, special care has to be taken to discuss and agree with the joint venture partners to ensure that the process is not considered a form of nationalisation,” it says.
Other measures to promote Nigerian content include making it mandatory for energy companies to use local insurance companies and to seek to raise capital in the country before turning to markets abroad.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Business Day: Nigeria’s oil output could fall by a third, says report
16 April, 2008 12:00:00 Matthew Green
Font size: Nigeria risks losing a third of its oil output by 2015 unless it finds ways to boost investment in joint ventures with foreign energy companies, an internal report by President Umaru Yar’Adua’s energy advisers warns.
The progess report, seen by the Financial Times, highlights the government’s need to find ways to finance the oil industry in the country. It comes after an internal memo from the Shell Petroleum Development Company late last year that said funding problems could put the existence of the company’s joint venture with the Nigerian government at risk. The fresh warning could add to supply fears that have pushed oil prices to fresh records this week and saw prices reach a record $114.95 a barrel yesterday.
Traders are already worried about Russia’s oil production, considered critical to keep up with Asian demand, after warnings from industry executives that production there has peaked at about 10m barrels a day.
Yar’Adua’s advisers include former Opec secretary-general Rilwanu Lukman, who chairs a committee created to draft proposals for an overhaul of Nigeria’s energy sector. The government hopes the reform process will help double production in Africa’s biggest crude exporter from its current 2.1m b/d.
The report says funding shortfalls “portend a grave danger not just to the reform process, but to the continued well-being of the industry as a whole”, adding that even if funding levels are maintained “total oil and gas production will decline by 30 percent from its current level by 2015″.
The government’s failure to pay its share of costs of the joint ventures with companies such as Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron, is one of the biggest obstacles to raising production.
The Nigerian government and Shell declined to comment.
Financial Times: Preparing for the age of peak oil
Published: April 16 2008 19:16 | Last updated: April 16 2008 19:16
Russia’s vast oil and gas reserves were seen not so long ago as the best hope of meeting growing world energy demand. No more. This week a top Russian oil executive echoed earlier official warnings that oil production could fall for the first time in a decade.
An output slump would hit consuming nations hard by sending international oil prices even higher. Russia would lose out too by forgoing tax revenues. But Moscow can prevent this - and create the conditions for a recovery in production.
In Russia, the problem is not so much a lack of oil but an investment drought. This has been caused by high taxes and hostile treatment of foreign and some domestic companies by a government reasserting control over its energy sector.
Russia will have to act quickly if it is to avoid a long-term decline in oil output. Bringing on stream untapped reserves in the Arctic and eastern Siberia will take years.
The government should therefore cut production taxes steeply. Only a large tax reduction will stimulate spending on domestic supply infrastructure. As long as there is little incentive to develop hard-to-access oil deposits at home, Russian energy firms will continue to make acquisitions abroad. The estimated $4bn extra a year that would be available to the industry under current proposals is a tiny fraction of what companies will need if they are to mitigate the output loss from declining fields in western Siberia.
The uncertainty over ownership rights to fields has to be resolved as well. This is as much a deterrent to domestic as to foreign investment. Western companies are rightly suspicious of the state’s motives. The official explanation for last month’s police raid on TNK-BP, the oil venture 50 per cent owned by BP, was alleged industrial espionage. But the suspicion remains that it was a ruse for Gazprom to be given a stake in the company.
Russia has much to gain by exploiting western expertise and technology. Foreign firms will compete fiercely for opportunities. But if it drives them out, Russia will be unable to revitalise its decayed supply network. There are signs the government understands this. US-based ExxonMobil, which has led the Sakhalin-1 development, is optimistic that stand-offs can be resolved.
Much can be done in the short term to stabilise falling output and ensure that a managed decline does not become a precipitous one. Moscow should swiftly pass delayed laws that define sectors where foreign involvement will be limited. It should press on with privatisation of state-controlled assets. Anything less would be a mistake.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
